Ministers have rejected claims of a pre-deadline surge in Section 21 evictions, even as industry figures point to a sharp rise in landlord instructions ahead of the Renters’ Rights Act coming into force on 1 May.
Government leans on court data while industry tracks notices
Housing minister Matthew Pennycook said the government does not expect a spike in no-fault eviction notices before the new regime starts. The response was based on Ministry of Justice figures showing accelerated possession claims under Section 21 fell 17% year on year in the final quarter of 2025.
That leaves a clear gap between the government’s position and what landlords, agents and possession specialists say they are seeing on the ground. Court claims measure cases that have already moved into the legal system. Industry figures often track instructions or notices served much earlier in the process, which means the two sets of numbers are not directly comparable.
Residential Landlord’s earlier coverage of the race to the 1 May deadline showed the same mismatch developing between official data and private sector reporting. The latest ministerial answer suggests that gap is still widening rather than closing.
Matthew Pennycook, housing minister, said the government does not expect a spike in Section 21 notices and pointed to official possession figures to support that view.
The Negotiator reported that Landlord Action recorded a 43% rise in Section 21 instructions in the first quarter of 2026, with overall possession instructions up 60% year on year in March. Those figures come from private sector casework rather than official datasets, but they reflect landlord behaviour before cases ever reach court.
For landlords, that distinction matters. The market is about to lose Section 21 and move to a system that relies more heavily on Section 8 grounds, court hearings and evidence. If more owners are serving notices now, it suggests many still lack confidence that the court process will deliver possession quickly enough after 1 May.
Residential Landlord’s report on long possession waits already highlighted why that concern remains central to investment decisions. Even landlords with no intention of evicting tenants routinely want confidence that they can regain possession when circumstances change.
The government’s argument is that official data does not show the feared cliff edge. That may be technically correct within the court series it is citing. But it may also miss the practical shift happening before claims are lodged. If the first real test comes later, the statistics ministers are relying on today may look stale very quickly.
Landlords can read the latest official background in the Ministry of Justice possession statistics for October to December 2025.
Opinion
This row is really about which numbers matter most: formal court claims or earlier landlord behaviour. Ministers appear to be choosing the tidier dataset. Landlords will be more interested in whether the courts can cope once Section 21 is gone, not whether Whitehall can win the argument for one more week.
