Property Market Resilience: Study of House Price Trends since the Last Downturn

A recent study conducted by national estate agency, Yopa, has unveiled intriguing insights into the performance of house prices across different regions of the UK since the last market crash. The research utilises data from the Government’s UK House Price Index, spanning from June 2009 to August 2023.

The findings reveal a substantial surge in house prices across most of the UK property market since the 2009 downturn. A notable increase of 20.2% has been observed even after accounting for inflation, effectively neutralising the reductions experienced between 2007 and 2009.

The London market has emerged as a standout performer, experiencing inflation-adjusted property price growth of 39.2% over the last 14 years, bringing the average property price to £535,597. Remarkably, this surge has occurred despite London not experiencing the same level of benefit from the recent pandemic-induced market boom as other regions.

Other regions showcasing robust growth include the East of England and the South East, registering inflation-adjusted growth rates of 33% and 30.1% respectively since 2009.

Zooming in on specific locations, seven of the top 10 growth areas since the global financial crisis are located in the capital. North London’s Waltham Forest leads the pack with a 68.4% rise, bringing the average house price to £501,67. The prime City of London and Hackney follow closely with increases of 68.1% and 65.6% respectively.

Beyond London, the City of Bristol stands out with an inflation-adjusted rise of 48.7%. Medway in Kent and East Cambridgeshire are other prominent hotspots, registering growth rates of 47.8% and 47.4% respectively.

Contrastingly, 49 local areas across the UK have witnessed a slump in property values when adjusted for inflation. Northern Ireland, the North East, and Scotland recorded declines of 19%, 9.8%, and 3.1% respectively. Aberdeen, heavily reliant on the fluctuating oil and gas sectors, has faced a steep 40% decline, while Ards and North Down and Belfast also feature among the worst-performing markets with reductions of 23.1% and 22.6%.

Yopa’s CEO, Verona Frankish, offered her perspective, stating: “Higher mortgage and energy costs have dampened the UK housing market, but there are certainly some positives to take from the current landscape. We’re yet to see any notable correction to house prices and, as history demonstrates, any period of decline is often followed by a period of substantial gains.”

Frankish further noted that the sharp reversal in property values post the global financial crisis led to strong growth across the majority of the UK. She concluded, “If the UK is able to steer through this tricky economic period there’s a strong chance that the property market will bounce back stronger than ever in the years to come.”