Industry figures have described the Chancellor’s Spring Statement as “predictability by design” – a deliberate attempt to restore confidence after last year’s turbulent Autumn Budget, though mounting geopolitical tensions may already have overtaken the fiscal forecasts.

Rachel Reeves delivered what Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts described as a subdued economic update, with growth projections for 2026 cut to 1.1% amid stubbornly high inflation and weak GDP performance in late 2025.

Confidence over policy

Adrian Moloney, group lending distribution director at OSB Group, characterised the Statement as “a confidence moment” rather than a housing policy trigger.

“For brokers, stability is valuable. When funding markets are calmer, lenders can price and plan with more certainty, which usually means fewer abrupt product changes and a more predictable advice landscape,” he said. “Ultimately, this isn’t a housing policy moment – it’s a confidence moment. And in lending, confidence is often what moves the dial.”

Dominic Agace, chief executive of Winkworth, welcomed the absence of new announcements: “Some stability is good after all the mansion tax machinations. However, it feels like this government needs to build its reputation amongst many who believe taxation will continue ever upwards.”

Housing strategy gap persists

Felicity Barnett, New Build and Affordable Housing Partnerships Manager at Mortgage Advice Bureau, criticised the silence on housing: “The Spring Statement staying quiet on housing feels like a missed opportunity, and doesn’t address the deeper, longer-term challenges facing housebuilding and planning.”

“We’ve heard the big headline commitments – such as 1.5 million homes and ‘build, baby, build’ – but 12 months on, we’re still waiting for clarity on how that ambition will actually be delivered.”

Social housing sector welcomes stability

Andy Hulme, Group Chief Executive of Hyde Group, welcomed the government’s focus on fiscal stability: “The planning reforms already undertaken are undoubtedly a positive step, and the OBR continues to build their impact into its medium-term forecast.”

“However, viability remains the central constraint. The OBR’s own analysis highlights the severe financial stress facing social housing providers, with maintenance costs rising far faster than rental income. If the housing sector is to play its full part in the government’s growth ambitions, further attention to the economics of delivery – such as land costs, build costs, and supporting private capital to invest in affordable homes delivery – will be essential.”

OBR housing forecasts

The OBR report contained several housing-specific projections:

• Net additions to the housing stock are forecast to fall to 220,000 in 2026-27 before rising to 305,000 by 2030-31, driven by planning reforms – though the OBR notes those reforms have yet to materialise in outturn data
• House price inflation is forecast to average just over 2.5% over the forecast period, broadly in line with income growth
• Property transactions rose nearly 11% in 2025 to 1.2 million and are forecast to reach 1.3 million by 2030
• The average effective mortgage rate on outstanding stock is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.5%, though this is 0.3 percentage points lower than November’s forecast
• Housing Revenue Accounts across local authorities are described as effectively loss-making, with repair and maintenance costs up 56% since 2019-20 against rental income growth of only 29%

This follows Residential Landlord’s recent analysis of shifting landlord purchasing patterns, with limited company structures now accounting for 43% of BTL transactions as investors adapt to the changing tax environment.

Market turmoil overshadows forecasts

Faye Church, Senior Planning Director at Rathbones, warned the fiscal picture may already be outdated: “Geopolitics has a habit of turning yesterday’s unknowns into today’s shocks – and the escalating situation in Iran has already raised serious questions about whether the new forecasts were out of date almost as soon as they landed.”

UK gilt yields remained elevated around 4.4% during the Statement, with the FTSE 100 trading approximately 2.6% lower. Hopes for an imminent interest rate cut have been scaled back dramatically amid renewed energy price concerns.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, called for greater clarity: “Given it is highly unlikely the government will reverse its tax policies to reduce business costs, the focus must shift to restoring pipeline visibility and stimulating real demand. Get those right and investment should follow. Without them, confidence may falter.”

Opinion

The Chancellor delivered exactly what markets needed: nothing. After the Autumn Budget’s destabilising speculation, a deliberately boring Spring Statement restores predictability. But the real test is whether that calm can hold. With Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher and gilt yields stubbornly elevated, the stability Reeves sought may prove temporary. For landlords and agents, the message is clear – plan for rates staying higher for longer, regardless of what the OBR forecasts suggest today.